المجلة الدولية لنشر البحوث والدراسات

International Journal of Research and Studies Publishing

المجلة الدولية لنشر البحوث والدراسات

Rainfall Trends Analysis in context of Climate Change in Imam Turki Bin Abdullah Royal Nature Reserve (ITBA) – Saudi Arabia

By: Prof. Dr. Ahmed Bin Abdullah Al-Dughairi

Department of Geography, College of Arabic Language and Social Studies, Qassim University, Saudi Arabia


Rainfall trend analysis, on different spatial and temporal scales, has been used during the past century as the indicate of global climate change by the scientific community. According to some recent studies, the Nature Reserve (ITBA) has been suffering a rainfall decrease, especially in the second half of the studied period (1993-2018). The aim of the present study is to analyze the rainfall trends using the time series of 52 years in five rain stations (Linah, Rafha, Ha’il, Dawmat Al Jandal and Hafr Al Batin) surrounding the Nature Reserve of (ITBA) that extended on area of about 91500 km2 in the Northeast of Saudi Arabia. The trends analysis of annual rainfall, rainy days, shows that the fluctuations or variations in climatic parameters is a recurring phenomena in the studied stations. Inter-annual variability of the rainfall and the actual mean of daily rainfall are characterized by the high coefficients of variation, varying from 0.73 (Linah) to 0.83 (Ha’il) and from 0.53 (Linah) to 1.09 (Rafha), respectively. The variance test of Fmax-ratio method indicates the homogeneous annual rainfall distribution at Linah, Rafha and Ha’il, the homogenous rainy days distribution at only Ha’il and the homogeneous distribution of the actual mean of the daily rainfall at only Linah. The trends of annual rainfall, rainy days and actual mean of the daily rainfall obtained by using T-student test are significant in Ha’il and Dawmat Al Jandal, in all stations and in only Hafr Al Batin, respectively.


Annual rainfall, Rainy days, Actual mean of daily rainfall, Moving averages, Semi-averages, Variance, Statistical tests.

Department of Geography, College of Arabic Language and Social Studies, Qassim University, Saudi Arabia

Al Balasmeh, O. ; Babbar, R. and Karmaker, T. (2019) Trend analysis and ARIMA modeling for forecasting precipitation pattern in Wadi Shueib catchment area in Jordan. Arab J. Geosci. 12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-4205-z.
- Ahokpossi Y (2018) Analysis of the rainfall variability and change in the Republic of Benin (West Africa). Hydrol. Sci. J. 63:2097–2123.https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2018.1554286.
- Al-Ahmadi, K. and Al-Ahmadi, S. (2013) Rainfall-altitude relationship in Saudi Arabia. Adv. Meteorol. 2013:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/363029
- Almazroui, M. ; Dambul, R. ; Islam, M.N. and Jones, P.D. (2015) Principal components-based regionalization of the Saudi Arabian climate. Int. J. Climatol. 35:2555–2573. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4139
- Al Sarmi, S, and Washington, R. (2011) Recent observed climate change over the Arabian Peninsula. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 116. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015459.
- Al Sarmi, S.H. and Washington. R. (2013). Review Changes in climate extremes in the Arabian Peninsula: analysis of daily data, International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/joc.3772, 17 pages.
- El Kenawy, A.M. and Mccabe, M.F. (2016) A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends. Int. J. Climatol. 36:656–674. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4374.
- Borse, K. and Agnihorti, P.G. (2017). Trend analysis of Upper Godavari basin: A case study, Project : Impact of Climate change on Agriculture using Geo spatial technologies, Presented in 22th International Conference on Hdraulics, Water resources and Coastal Engineering, Hydro-2017, College of Engineering Ahmedabad, India, 15-17 December 2017.
- Caloiero, T. ; Coscarelli, R. and Ferrari, E. (2019) Assessment of seasonal and annual rainfall trend in Calabria (southern Italy) with the ITA method. J. Hydro. Inf. 22:738–748. https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2019.138.
- Chu, D. P. T. and Sutradhar, B. C. (1995). On Cochran's and Hartley's tests for homogeneity of variances when observations are autocorrelated, Communications in Statistics - Simulation, 24, 327-347.
- Conover, W. J. ; Johnson, M. E. and Johnson, M. M. (1981). A comparative study of tests for homogeneity of variances, with applications to the outer continental shelf bidding data, Technometrics,23: 351-361.
- Crowe , P. R. (1971). Concepts in climatology , Grou Ltd , London , pp. 589.
- Cui, L. ; Wang, L. ; Lai, Z. ; Tian, Q. ; Liu, W. and Li, J. (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960–2015. J. Atmos. Solar-Terrestrial Phys. 164:48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2017.08.001.
- David, H. A. (1952). Upper 5 % maximum F-ratio, Biometrika, 39, 422-424.
- Fisher, M. and Membery, D.A. (1998). Climate. In Vegetation of the Arabian Peninsula, Ghazanfar S, Fisher M (eds). Kluwer Academic Publishers: Netherland; 5-38.
- Furl, C. ; Sharif, H.O. ; Alzahrani, M. ; El Hassan, A. and Mazari, N. (2014) Precipitation amount and intensity trends across Southwest Saudi Arabia. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 50:74–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12118
- Gao, F. ; Wang, Y. ; Chen, X. and Yang, W. (2020) Trend analysis of rainfall time series in Shanxi Province, Northern China (1957–2019). Water 12(9):2335.
- Gregory, S. (1970). Statistical methods and Geographer , Longman Grou. Ltd., London, pp. 277.
- Gupta , R.C. (1987). On the monotonic properties of the residual variance and their application in reliability, Journal of Statistical planning and Inference, 16: 325-333.
- Hartley, H. O. (1950). The maximum F-ratio as a short cut test for homogeneity of variance, Biometrika, 37: 308-312.
- Hossain, M.S. ; Qian, L. ; Arshad, M. ; Shahid, S. ; Fahad, S. and Akhter, J. (2019) Climate change and crop farming in Bangladesh: an analysis of economic impacts. Int. J. Clim. Chang. Strateg. Manag. 11:424–440. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-04-2018-0030
- Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica. 13:245. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187
- McKee, T.B. ; Doesken, N.J. and Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. In Eight Conference on Applied Climatology, 17-22 January 1993, Anaheim, CA, USA.
- Miah, M.G. ; Abdullah, H.M. and Jeong, C. (2017) Exploring standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index for drought assessment in Bangladesh. Environ. Monit. Assess. 189(11):547.
- Oliver , J. E. (1981). Climatology selected applications , Edward Arnold , V. H. Wiston and Sons , pp 260.
- Praveen, B. ; Talukdar, S. ; Mahato, S. ; Mondal, J. ; Sharma, P. ; Islam, A.R. M.T. and Rahman, A. (2020) Analyzing trend and forecasting of rainfall changes in India using non-parametrical andmachine learning approaches. Sci. Rep. 10(1):1–21.
- Rahman, M.S. and Islam, A.R.M.T. (2019) Are precipitation concentration and intensity changing in Bangladesh overtimes? Analysis of the possible causes of changes in precipitation systems. Sci. Total Environ. 690:370–387. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.529.
- Rivest, L. (1987). Bartlett's, Cochran's, and Hartley's tests on variances are liberal when the underlying distribution is long-tailed, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81,124-128.
- Sanikhani, H. ; Kisi, O, ; Mirabbasi, R. and Meshram, S.G. (2018) Trend analysis of rainfall pattern over the Central India during 1901–2010. Arab J Geosci 11. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3800-3.
- Sun, F. ; Roderick, M.L. and Farquhar, G.D. (2018) Rainfall statistics, stationarity, and climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 115(10):2305–2310.
- Tosunoğlu, F. (2017) Trend analysis of daily maximum rainfall series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey. Iğdır Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi 7(1):195–205.
- Wang, R. ; Chen, J. ; Chen, X. and Wang, Y. (2017) Variability of precipitation extremes and dryness/wetness over the southeast coastal region of China, 1960–2014. Int. J. Climatol. 37(13):4656–4669.
- Wang, Y. ; Xu, Y. ; Tabari, H. ; Wang, J. ; Wang, Q. ; Song, S. and Hu, Z. (2020) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta, Eastern China. Atmos. Res. 231:104673, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.104673.

المجلة الدولية لنشر البحوث والدراسات

المجلة الدولية لنشر البحوث والدراسات مجلة علمية محكمة متخصصة في نشر الابحاث العلمية في مختلف التخصصات، تصدر المجلة الدولية دورياً كل شهر. تصدر المجلة في المملكة الأردنية الهاشمية


نحن نعمل باستمرار على تحسين مجلتنا العلمية وعملية النشر لدينا بهدف تزويدك بأفضل تجربة نشر علمية. فإننا نقدر رأيك ونرحب بأي اقتراحات عبر الإيميل التالي: info@ijrsp.com

جميع الحقوق © محفوظة المجلة الدولية لنشر البحوث والدراسات 2019